Wales has a new First Minister: Eluned Morgan was confirmed in the role after a vote in the Senedd on 6 August 2024. She becomes the first woman to hold the position, and replaces Vaughan Gething after his resignation three weeks earlier.
Morgan was the only contender to take over from Gething. She stood on a “joint unity ticket” with Huw Irranca-Davies (who will serve as her deputy first minister), in a clear attempt to move on from the increasingly acrimonious in-fighting of Welsh Labour over recent months.
Unity leadership for a divided party
The tensions within Welsh Labour have intensified since the leadership contest that Vaughan Gething very narrowly won back in March. Gething’s campaign was marred by controversy over his acceptance of a £200,000 donation from a man twice convicted of environmental offences by companies under his control.
Gething denied any wrongdoing, but the story refused to go away. There was growing discontent within his own party over the decision. Similar concerns were cited by Plaid Cymru when it ended its co-operation agreement with Welsh Labour in May; the deal had been in place since December 2021. This move made it very unlikely that Welsh Labour could secure a majority in the Senedd to pass its budget.
Other developments added to the tensions within Welsh Labour. In May, Gething sacked one of his cabinet ministers – Hannah Blythyn – over the apparent leaking of phone messages between Welsh ministers during the pandemic. The messages themselves led to accusations that Gething had misled the UK Covid-19 Inquiry about the deletion of messages from his mobile phone. Supporters of Blythyn – who denied being the source of the leak – were also upset by the manner of her sacking.
In June, Gething lost a vote of no-confidence in the Senedd because two members of his party were absent due to illness. But he refused to resign, insisting that he would carry on in his role and enjoyed the support of Sir Kier Starmer. His hand was forced several weeks later, though, by the resignation of four ministers from his cabinet.
Eluned Morgan’s party and electoral challenges
After much speculation about another Welsh Labour leadership contest, it’s significant that Morgan emerged as the only candidate to take over as First Minister. It signals a desire to move on from the turbulence of recent months, and repairing relationships within the Party is going to be a priority. There’s a strong electoral incentive for doing so: it’s well known that voters dislike divided parties. But there’s also the much bigger challenge of preparing for the 2026 Senedd election. The contest will mark a major change in Welsh electoral politics: a new proportional (closed-list) electoral system will be used to elect representatives to an expanded Senedd of 96 members (compared to 60 currently).
It’s impossible to know exactly how these changes will play out in terms of electoral dynamics – but it is likely to be a difficult contest for Welsh Labour. There are signs that the party’s electoral support is weakening. Welsh Labour’s performance in the 2024 general election was, on the face of it, a resounding success: it won 27 out of the 32 seats up for grabs in Wales. But the party’s vote share actually fell by 4%, marking its fourth-lowest vote share in Welsh electoral history.
Data from the most recent Welsh Election Study also suggests that many who voted Welsh Labour in the general election could switch to support Plaid Cymru in 2026. If that transpires, Plaid Cymru could be a strong contender to replace Welsh Labour as the largest party in the next Senedd.
A new Welsh Labour agenda for policy and constitutional change?
Of course, much can happen before 2026. Underpinning this weakening in electoral support is the fact that – after 25 years of Welsh Labour government – public services in Wales are in a terrible state. And the party’s track-record of delivering improvements in the policy areas that matter most to voters, such as health and social care, is poor.
For example, in April 2022 the Welsh Government published its plans to reduce NHS waiting lists in Wales; a review of progress to date published in July 2024 noted that “so far, the Welsh Government hasn’t achieved any of its ambitions”. As Minister for Health and Social Care from May 2021 until her appointment as First Minister, Eluned Morgan is directly implicated in this failure to transform the Health Service in Wales.
In her first speech to the Senedd after being confirmed as First Minister, Morgan committed to “listening to what people want and delivering in every corner of this great nation”. But it’s not yet clear how, in practice, she plans to tackle the significant policy challenges facing her new government.
Neither is it clear to what extent the changed political landscape in Westminster since the July general election will help with Morgan’s ambitions for policy delivery. It has been a frequent complaint of previous First Ministers that successive Conservative governments in London have not taken devolution – or Wales – seriously.
In principle, having a Labour-led UK Government should improve relationships between Wales and central government. The King’s Speech contained a specific commitment to strengthening relations between central government and the devolved nations.
But there are contentious issues to be discussed. The majority of the Welsh Government’s funding comes from a block grant from the UK Government. In recent years, however, there have been growing budgetary pressures in response to high inflation, the cost-of-living crisis, unfunded public sector pay rises, and increased demand for services. Revisiting the Barnett formula is not currently on UK Labour’s to-do list, and there’s little prospect of significant additional funding as a result of UK Government spending in England in the near future.
There are also the recommendations of the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, published in January 2024, for immediate reform to protect the devolved settlement. They include calls to reinforce inter-governmental relations, give weight to the Sewel convention, and devolve responsibilities for rail infrastructure and justice and policing to Wales. On the latter at least, UK Labour’s response so far has been dismissive.
New leader, same challenges?
Eluned Morgan takes over as First Minister after a difficult time for Welsh Labour, but the challenges she faces are not new, and her options for tackling them are arguably limited. Re-unifying her party would help refocus the Welsh Government’s attention back on policy delivery in Wales. Tackling the country’s significant policy challenges is a bigger undertaking, though, and making any kind of impact before the 2026 Senedd election will be the biggest challenge of all.
Anwen Elias.
Dr Anwen Elias is Reader in Politics at Aberystwyth University. She is also Co-Director of the Centre for Welsh Politics and Society and the WalesInstitute of Social and Economic Research and Data.
The Constitution Society is committed to the promotion of informed debate and is politically impartial. Any views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author and not those of The Constitution Society.