On 7 May 2026, the people of Wales will go to the polls to elect the seventh Senedd. Three factors make this a landmark election in the history of devolution in Wales: Senedd reform, forecasted changes to the membership of the Senedd, and a new party forming the Welsh government.
Part 1: Senedd reform
The question of Senedd reform has been a perennial issue in Welsh politics since the introduction of devolution in 1999. In particular, the debate has focussed on two issues: increasing the size of the plenary chamber and amending the electoral system. Initially comprising of sixty members, the Senedd was quickly criticised as being too small to undertake effective scrutiny, and arguments were made to introduce a more proportional electoral system. Over the intervening years, a series of commissions and other groups – beginning with the Richard Commission in 2004 – offered recommendations for reform. Since gaining the power to amend its electoral process and institutional structure in 2017, the Senedd has used the full extent of these powers to effect changes to its size, electoral system and franchise.
In 2020, the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act extended the franchise in Senedd elections to include 16 and 17 years olds. This group cast their ballots for the first time at the Senedd election in May 2021. In this instance of franchise reform, Wales matched Scotland, which extended the franchise in 2015. Alongside this change, the Act also amended the name of the Welsh legislature from the National Assembly for Wales to Senedd Cymru / Welsh Parliament. This was a simple but significant amendment, signalling how devolution had come of age in Wales, and providing nomenclatural parity between the legislatures in Wales and Scotland.
Four years later, the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 made amendments to the Senedd’s size and the voting system used for Senedd elections. Under the Act, the size of the chamber is increased from sixty to ninety-six members, concluding more than two decades of debate on the topic. The Act also amends the electoral system for Senedd elections, replacing the Additional Members System (AMS) with Closed Proportional List. This intends to deliver a more proportional outcome, while also amending the constituency boundaries and method of voting – instead of the two, separate, constituency and regional votes cast under AMS, voters will now cast only one vote to select a political party in one of sixteen new constituencies. Each constituency will return six members, with most of the main parties fielding lists of six candidates in each constituency.
In addition to changing the method for voting in Senedd elections, the introduction of Closed Proportional List also changes the procedure for replacing candidates who vacate their seats during the Senedd term. Specifically, the new process removes the need for byelections, as a member who vacates their seat will simply be replaced by the next candidate on the respective party list. In instances where a party has no list candidates left for that constituency list, or if they are an independent member, the seat will remain vacant until the next Senedd election. An equivalent process already existed to replace those candidates elected via the proportional regional element of the AMS system, but will now extend to include all candidates. A shortcoming of the closed list system is that voters are confined to selecting a political party, and do not have the option to select specific candidates – the ordering of party lists is decided by each political party, not the electorate.
Alongside these changes to procedure, the new electoral system is almost guaranteed to impact the political composition of the next Senedd. First, a more proportional electoral system will decrease the likelihood of majority government in Wales, while increasing the number of political parties represented in Y Siambr (the chamber). Already, the presence of minority situations following Senedd elections is normal, with all Welsh governments since 1999 having been either a coalition or minority arrangement. The increase in multi-party representation, however, will further necessitate cooperation between political partners to deliver a programme for government. Where coalition agreements are not possible, examples of contract parliamentarianism, such as the recent Co-operation Agreement (2021-24) between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru, will likely become more common in future Seneddau.
Second, the immediate factors affecting the current election also appear likely to deliver change to the ordering of the main parties within the Senedd. Since the introduction of devolution in 1999, Welsh Labour has held the position as the largest party after each election, and the leader of every Welsh government to date, making it the democratic world’s most successful election-winning machine. If current polling data is correct, this legacy will end after this year’s election. Welsh Labour are predicted to lose seats and fall into third place behind the frontrunners Plaid Cymru, and Reform UK. The polls also suggest changes to the electoral fortunes of the Welsh Conservatives and the Green Party. Whatever the outcome, the political composition of the seventh Senedd will be very different from its predecessors.
Part 2: A changing membership and government
Aside from government formation, three factors will also influence change in this election. First, due to the increase in the size of the Senedd up to ninety-six members, there are thirty-six seats that are guaranteed to deliver new members after 7 May. This amounts to the largest proportionate increase to the size of an existing parliamentary institution in modern British history. The effect of over a third of the seats being filled by new candidates will in the short-term reduce the collective expertise of the membership of the Senedd.
Second, the space to be occupied by new members is further increased by those members who are stepping down at this election. In total, sixteen have declared that they will not be contesting the election, which is the highest number to step down ahead of an election since 1999. More interesting, however, is the distribution of political parties represented in this cohort: fourteen are from Welsh Labour; one Welsh Conservative; one Independent. While it is not surprising that Welsh Labour contributes the largest proportion of those members stepping down – they are currently the largest party with twenty-nine of the sixty Senedd seats – this number is disproportionately high, and accounts for nearly fifty per cent of the current Welsh Labour group.
The reasons cited by those members who are stepping down are multiple and include retirement, career changes and personal matters. Another, unspoken factor, however, is the threat of failing to win re-election. Here an equivalent situation arose ahead of the 2024 general election, where twenty per cent of MPs decided to stand down, many of whom cited polling as an influencing factor. With current polls suggesting that Welsh Labour will lose seats and fall into third place, it is not unreasonable to assume that a similar dynamic is at play in this election.
Third, the combined effect of projected electoral outcomes and the intake of at least fifty-two new members will impact the level of collective expertise and institutional memory in the seventh Senedd. The current crop of members stepping down collectively represent 265 years of parliamentary experience, including two – Jane Hutt and John Griffiths – who have held their seats since the first Senedd election in May 1999. Also included are members with considerable experience in government, including two former First Ministers, and several members who had held senior Welsh ministerial positions. Another important change in personnel is in the office of Llywydd (Presiding Officer), following Elin Jones’ decision to stand down after ten years in post, citing time was needed for a ‘new pair of eyes’ to oversee the larger chamber of ninety-six members. This election is a transitionary moment into a new age for devolution in Wales.
Finally, it is necessary to also consider the experience available to the next Welsh government. Assuming the polls are correct, a study of the two parties currently leading the polls – Plaid Cymru and Reform UK – shows very little collective experience of government. Indeed, the only candidate from either party who has previously held a ministerial position is Elin Jones (Plaid Cymru), who was Minister for Rural Affairs in the One Wales Coalition (2006-2011), some fifteen years ago. While this is an inevitable consequence of Welsh Labour’s dominance of Welsh politics to date, it also means that the next Welsh government will experience a bedding in period as its members learn the workings of office. In the event of a change of government, the first one hundred days are the key period for the success of the transition, where the new actors adapt to the unfamiliar world of government and the Civil Service.
A change election
The seventh Senedd will be a very different parliament compared to its predecessors – increased in size and returned by a new electoral system, its personnel will also be renewed, with a majority of new members and a likely change of government. This is inevitably going to be a change election, delivering a new dynamic for Welsh politics and a landmark moment in the history of devolution in Wales.
Gareth Evans.
Gareth is a Lecturer in Law at Swansea University and a contributing writer for the Constitution Society.
The Constitution Society is committed to the promotion of informed debate and is politically impartial. Any views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author and not those of The Constitution Society.