David Butler wrote in 1997 in his introduction to the definitive guide to the by-election:
They may offer some guide to the public mood; but who now would dare to give a figure for the likely difference between a by-election result today and what would happen in an immediate general election? It is much more necessary to hesitate before extrapolating to a general election that is two or three years off.
However, this has not stopped the media drawing all sorts of conclusions from by-elections over the years. Circumstance, timing, scandal and a range of other local factors shape the impact of a one-off mid-term election. They are, though, without doubt a focusing event for the national media.
On 18 June the electors of Makerfield will go to the polls to elect a new member of Parliament. This rather odd by-election is of course one manufactured by Labour MP Josh Simons’ stepping down from the seat to potentially make way for Andy Burnham. It remains to be seen how voters will respond to this political chicanery. There are another two by-elections on the same day (though neither have received the same level of attention) – Aberdeen South will elect a replacement for Stephen Flynn, the former SNP leader in Westminster who was elected to the Scottish Parliament in May, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry will replace Stephen Gethins who similarly moved into the Scottish Parliament.
A brief history of by-elections in the UK
It may seem like by-elections are a common feature of the fractious UK political landscape. However, this is not necessarily the case. Of the 529 by-elections since 1945 most occurred post-war; during the 1959-64 Parliament there were 61 by-elections, for example. Even with the turmoil of the 2019-2024 post-Brexit parliament, with three prime ministers, the number of by-elections totalled 23.
By-elections are generally caused by the death of the incumbent MP. However, scandals and other reasons for resignation have increased of late. The rise in scandalous resignations may be due to the spread of the internet and social media over the last two decades, enhancing public awareness of such behaviour and making an MP’s continued service untenable. The most notorious example is of course the North Shropshire by-election on 16 December 2021, called after the incumbent Owen Paterson broke lobbying rules and the government caused considerable controversy by trying to protect him.
MPs are, though, reluctant to resign their seats after defecting to another party. Three MPs (one in the 1979 parliament and two in the 2010 parliament) did resign and trigger by-elections after defecting to other parties but only one of the three (Douglas Carswell, defecting from the Conservatives to UKIP in 2014) successfully retained his seat at both the by-election and then at the subsequent general election. In total 94 MPs have resigned and changed party allegiance since 1979 and if you include those suspended (who then subsequently change party or chose to sit as an independent) the total figure rises to 230. Backbench MPs in 2011 and 2020 introduced Private Members’ Bills to require a by-election if an MP changed parties. However, neither of these bills made it to second reading.
Since 2015 constituents can force a by-election via a recall petition. MPs can only be recalled if they receive a prison sentence of less than 12 months (longer sentences result in automatic disqualification), if they are suspended from the House by the Committee on Standards for 10 sitting days or more, or if they are convicted of making false or misleading parliamentary expenses claims. Since the introduction of the process, only three MPs have been successfully recalled. Two were recalled in 2019: Chris Davies in Brecon and Radnorshire, following a conviction for fraudulent expenses claims, and Fiona Onasanya in Peterborough, following a criminal conviction for perverting the course of justice in relation to two speeding incidents. Margaret Ferrier was recalled by voters in Rutherglen and Hamilton West in 2023, having breached Covid restrictions.
In research analysing by-elections, Alia Middleton concluded that turnout is consistently lower in by-elections compared to general elections (though seats with lower turnouts in the earlier election see lower turnouts in by-elections too) and there is likely to be a swing against the government of the day. Of significance for Makerfield perhaps, Middleton’s research noted that by-elections no longer routinely represent a way in which former MPs and heavyweights can be replanted into Westminster.
By-election rules and regulations
By-elections are conducted under the same voting conditions as general elections in terms of who is eligible to be a candidate and who is eligible to vote (votes at 16 will not apply until 2029). In the case of Makerfield, Andy Burnham will be required to step down as Mayor of Greater Manchester if he wins the seat. If you were wondering why Ken Livingstone (2000 to 2001), Boris Johnson (2015 to 2016), Dan Norris (2024 to 2025) and Dan Jarvis (2018 to 2022) could all be both MPs and mayors, this is because as Mayor of Greater Manchester he is also Police and Crime Commissioner for the region.
Being a local contest between general elections, by-elections attract considerable national attention in the media, and parties seek to exploit this, throwing resources at such mid-term campaigns to turn them into would-be referendums. The spending limit for candidates in a by-election is £180,050 and this figure was increased in November 2023 – the first increase since the limit was instituted – and is about four times the short campaign limit for individual constituencies during a general election. The regulated period for spending begins on the day after the candidate is officially selected and ends on polling day (often a short period of time). However, spending on national issues during the by-election campaign may potentially avoid the limit.
Makerfield – a significant by-election
The Makerfield by-election has been referred to as a unique election, unlike any other by-election. With a route back into the Commons for Andy Burnham opening up if he should win, the campaign has become a test of his national popularity as much as his local. The campaign has had national salience, with Burnham setting out his prime ministerial credentials, ahead of a challenge to the Prime Minister expected if Burnham wins in Makerfield.
The closest historical parallel comes from 1965 when a by-election was held in Leyton in an attempt to engineer the return of Labour MP Patrick Gordon Walker, who was expected to be made Foreign Secretary under Harold Wilson but had surprisingly lost his Smethwick seat in controversial circumstances (Labour accused the Conservatives of running an overtly racist campaign in the constituency) at the previous year’s general election. The then-Prime Minister persuaded the Labour MP for Leyton, Reg Sorensen, to accept a seat in the Lords, triggering the by-election. As Lord Cryer documents, the campaign was an eventful one, with Denis Healey involved in a fracas with the far right. However, Gordon Walker ultimately lost the by-election and had to wait until the 1966 general election to win a seat and join Wilson’s cabinet.
There may be some parallels with Leyton in Makerfield, though in this case the Prime Minister will have mixed views about a potential Burnham return. If Burnham loses, it would be another blow to Labour and a further boost for Reform, yet if he wins, it will present a direct challenge to the Prime Minister’s leadership. This makes the Makerfield by-election a localised election with unusually significant national implications. Voters in Makerfield are not only voting on a new MP for the constituency (aware that this is a manufactured contest), but are voting on whether to facilitate Andy Burnham’s re-entry into the Commons specifically to challenge the sitting Prime Minister.
Having lost the two by-elections so far since the 2024 general election (in Runcorn and Helsby to Reform and in Gorton and Denton to the Greens) and bruised from the local and devolved elections in May, Labour faces an uphill task to hold the seat. The unusual circumstances in Makerfield make this one particularly difficult to predict, and the collision of local and national factors have created a uniquely high-stakes local skirmish.
Mark Bennister.
Mark Bennister is an experienced academic researching comparative political leadership, prime ministerial power, governance, public policy, and accountability in parliament. He is a Visiting Reader at Queen Mary, University of London, an Affiliate Research Fellow at the Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge, and Honorary Senior Fellow, University of Lincoln.
The Constitution Society is committed to the promotion of informed debate and is politically impartial. Any views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author and not those of The Constitution Society.