Northern Ireland went to the polls on July 4th in what, for several reasons, turned out to be a historic election. The term “historic election” has been worn out in Northern Ireland recently, as since 2017, our elections across the piece have all had something in them that has represented a first in our electoral history. Yet, it would be churlish not to acknowledge the profound nature of what happened in this general election.
The campaign was noteworthy for its low-key nature and lack of an overarching narrative or hook. The 2017 and 2019 campaigns were dominated by the collapse of the devolved institutions and the workings of Brexit, which had a particularly acute impact on Northern Ireland due to the debates about the open border with the Republic of Ireland. In this election, with the devolved institutions restored earlier this year and the issue of Brexit moving further into the background, the campaign centred on the internal battle within Unionism, as the TUV, UUP, and DUP battled against each other in critical constituencies. Also, the battle between the DUP and the cross-community Alliance Party in places such as East Belfast and Lagan Valley took up much of the focus during the campaign due to the high-profile nature of the candidates running and the broader political context within both seats.
Now, as the deluge subsides, what does one see?
Of the 18 seats Northern Ireland has in the House of Commons, little has changed from 2019 regarding the balance between Unionism and Nationalism. Eight Unionists were returned, nine Nationalists were returned, and one is unaligned. This is the same as in 2019, but there are many new faces and players in this crop of MPs. Furthermore, the various parties’ strength has been altered.
The undisputed election winner was Sinn Fein. For the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, they emerged as the largest party at Westminster in both vote share and seats. This achievement, locally known as the “historic hat trick,” follows their recent successes at the 2022 Assembly Election and the 2023 Local Government Election. The party secured 27% of the vote and retained all seven seats they entered the campaign with, narrowly missing out on another in East Londonderry by just 179 votes. Their low-key campaign strategy, which kept them above the political fray, effectively mitigated any potential damage from the disappointing election results in the Irish Republic in June. It’s worth noting that Sinn Fein now holds four of the five safest seats in Northern Ireland. They are also considerably ahead of their main rivals, the SDLP, who held their two seats but saw their overall vote share decline.
It was a difficult night for the Democratic Unionist Party, which has dominated Westminster elections since 2005. The Party lost three seats overall, with heartlands like North Antrim falling to one of their main rivals, Traditional Unionist Voice. For those who might not be aware, this seat was first won by DUP founder Ian Paisley in 1970 and has been represented by this family ever since. On election night, the 54-year Paisley dynasty ended as a majority of over 12,000 disappeared, with Jim Allister taking the seat by just 450 votes. The Party also lost South Antrim by a large margin to the UUP, putting the UUP back on the benches of the House of Commons for the first time since 2017. Next, Lagan Valley was lost to the Alliance Party. This seat was previously held by two former leaders of Unionism and now, for the first time, is not represented by a Unionist politician.
The DUP has essentially fragmented in many different directions. The entry of the TUV into the race at Westminster for the first time since 2017 has driven more conservative-leaning voters from the Party, concerned about the Windsor Framework and the deal the DUP made back in February to go back into the Executive. In some places the DUP was hurt by high-profile candidates with likewise high approval ratings. In South Antrim, for example, Robin Swann of the UUP who served as Health Minister during the pandemic won the constituency at the DUP’s expense. In essence the DUP has struggled to keep together the broad coalition of support it’s enjoyed since 2005.
Despite this, though, two bright spots remain for the Party. The first is that Party Leader Gavin Robinson saw off a strong challenge from the Alliance Party in East Belfast. Importantly, Carla Lockhart also retained Upper Bann for the DUP with a swing toward her.
When you examine each of Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies, you find that eight have a majority of the vote for Unionist candidates still, seven have a majority for pro-Irish unification candidates, and three have no majority for either. It should be noted that in two of these constituencies, North Belfast & South Belfast and Mid Down, the pro-unification vote has a plurality. This will give Sinn Fein a spring in their step to continue the push for a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future, though it should be noted that the new Labour government has shown little interest in calling one.
The takeaways from the 2024 General Election are that we now see a more plural Unionist representation, with three parties and one independent making up the pro-Union crop of MPs. This is the most diverse makeup from that wing of local politics in three decades. For the Nationalist side of the house, Sinn Fein has strengthened its position, and it has targets for future elections. Alliance’s surge has receded somewhat; despite gaining Lagan Valley, it lost North Down and recorded swings away in many constituencies. It will be interesting to see how the party engages with debates around the constitution going forward. Previously, the Party had attended debates and discussions about this topic, and whether this election impacts this going forward remains to be seen.
This Parliament will see a diverse cohort from Northern Ireland, different shades of Unionism, Nationalism and a continuing unaligned presence. Whilst the new government are unlikely to call a referendum on Northern Ireland’s future in the next four to five years, it remains to be seen how these new faces will make their presence felt at Westminster.
David McCann.
Dr David McCann has been a Constitution Society Research Fellow. David’s fellowship report is available at: https://consoc.org.uk/publications/reporting-the-divide/. He holds a PhD in relations between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland from 1959-72 from Ulster University. He has worked as a Lecturer in Politics and International Studies at Ulster University and as Deputy Editor of Northern Ireland’s biggest current affairs website, Slugger O’Toole.
The Constitution Society is committed to the promotion of informed debate and is politically impartial. Any views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author and not those of The Constitution Society.